برنامهریزی توسعه منابع انرژی گسترده با بهرهگیری از شبیهسازی مونت کارلو در فضای نظریه بازیها با اطلاعات ناقص

This paper proposes a dynamic game approach to distributed energy resource (DER) expansion planning from investors’ viewpoint with incomplete information. An innovative framework is proposed here to encounter different aspects of DER planning. Wind turbines, gas engines and combined heat and power (CHP) are considered as DERs in this study. For reducing the risk of investment, some support schemes are proposed for wind and CHP. Furthermore, strategic uncertainty of rival behavior as one of the uncertainties has been modeled in electricity market using incomplete information game theory. By the proposed model, the dynamic behaviors of DERs investors and the effects of regulatory intervention on expansion planning are analyzed. The proposed model is capable of evaluating the mutual effects of supporting policies on penetration rate of multi-resources simultaneously. The effectiveness of the proposed model is illustrated through implementing on a test system.